Marine Climate Change Impacts
 
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Climate Impacts and Marine Fisheries

Many changes in marine commercial fish stocks have been observed over the last few decades in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans but it is extremely difficult to separate, in terms of changes in population densities and recruitment, regional climate effects from direct anthropogenic influences like fishing. Geographical range extensions or changes in the geographical distribution of fish populations, however, can be more confidently linked to hydro-climatic variation and regional climate warming. Similar to the observed changes in marine ecological systems, many long-term changes in fish populations have been associated with known natural modes of climatic oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the North Atlantic. For example, variations in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) driven by NAO fluctuations have been linked to fluctuations in cod (one of the major North Atlantic fish resources) recruitment both off Labrador and Newfoundland and in the Barents Sea. Populations of herring, sardine, salmon and tuna have shown changes linked to fluctuations in the NAO index. Warm events related to El Niño episodes and climate induced ecological regime shifts in the Pacific have been associated with the disruption of many commercial fisheries. These changes highlight the sensitivity of fish populations to environmental change. Direct evidence of biological impacts of anthropogenic climate change is, however, difficult to discern due to the background of natural variation on a variety of spatial and temporal scales and in particular natural oscillations in climate.

Northerly geographical range extensions or changes in the geographical distribution of fish populations have been recently documented for European Continental shelf seas and along the European Continental shelf edge. These geographical movements have been related to regional climate warming and are predominantly associated with the northerly geographical movement of fish species with more southern biogeographical affinities. These include the movement of sardines and anchovies northward in the North Sea and red mullet and bass extending their ranges northward to western Norway. New records were also observed over the last decade for a number of Mediterranean and north-west African species on the south coast of Portugal. The cooling and the freshening of the north-west Atlantic over the last decade has had an opposite effect, with some groundfish species moving further south in their geographical distribution.

Regional climate warming in the North Sea has affected cod recruitment via changes at the base of the food web. Cod, like many other fish species, are highly dependent on the availability of planktonic food during their pelagic larval stages. Key changes in the planktonic assemblage caused by the warming of the North Sea over the last few decades has resulted in a poor food environment for cod larvae and hence eventual recruitment success. This research is an example of how both the dual pressures of over-fishing and regional climate warming have conspired together to negatively impact a commercially important fishery. Recent work on pelagic phenology has shown that plankton communities, including fish larvae, are very sensitive to regional climate warming with the response to warming varying between trophic levels and functional groups. These changes, again seen in the North Sea, have the potential to be of detriment to commercial fish stocks via trophic mismatch. The ability and speed in which fish and planktonic communities adapt to regional climate warming is not yet known.

Additional information and key links
ICES logo
ICES Report: Environmental Status of the European Seas
ICES report
Environmental Status of the European Seas (pdf)
FAO Fisheries Information Centre

FAO
Food and Agriculture Organisation

Key references
Beaugrand, G., Brander, K.M., Lindley, J.A., Souissi, S. & Reid, P.C. 2003. Plankton effect on cod recruitment in
      the North Sea. Nature, 426, 661-664.

Beaugrand, G. and P. C. Reid (2003). "Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate." Global Change Biology 9(6): 801-817.

Beare, D., Burns, F., Peach, K., Portilla, E., Greig, T., McKenzie, E. & Reid, D. 2004. An increase in the abundance
      of anchovies and sardines in the north-western North Sea since 1995. Global Change Biology, 10, 1-5.

Brander, K., Blom, G., Borges. M.F., Erzini, K., Henderson, G., Mackenzie, B.R., Mendes, H., Ribeiro, J., Santos,
      A.M.P., & Toresen, R. 2003a. Changes In Fish Distribution In The Eastern North Atlantic: Are We Seeing A
      Coherent Response To Changing Temperature? ICES Marine Science Symposia, 219, 261-270.

Drinkwater, K.F., Belgrano, A., Borja, A., Conversi A., Edwards, M., Greene, C.H., Ottersen, G., Pershing, A.J. &
      Walker, H. 2003. Chapter 10. The response of marine ecosystems to North Atlantic climate variability
      associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: The North Atlantic Oscillation (ed) J. Hurrell. Geophysical
      Monograph 134. American Geophysical Union, Washington.

Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Elllis, J.R. & Reynolds, J.D. 2005. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes.
      Nature, 308, 1912-1915.

Rose, G.A. & O'Driscoll, R.L. 2002. Capelin are good for cod: can the northern stock rebuild without them? ICES
      Journal of Marine Science, 59, 1018-1026.
 
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